PRECEDENT // OPEN-SOURCE HISTORICAL ARCHIVE EST. 2026 // EVERY CLAIM SOURCED
Declassified
FILE INDEX — PUBLIC RECORD

PRECEDENT

History doesn't repeat itself. But it sets a precedent.

Every conflict in the headlines has a forgotten precedent — a moment that already showed us how it ends. PRECEDENT finds them: short, cinematic history that explains the present, and lays out the record behind every claim.

01

The Two Series

Series A — Priority File

Closest Calls

The catastrophes the world barely survived.

The wars, weapons, and disasters that came within one switch, one decision, or one accident of changing everything — and the records that prove how close it got.

  • 04There's a Hydrogen Bomb Buried in North Carolina
  • The Biological Attack America Almost Didn't Survive
  • The Frozen Island That Nearly Started Nuclear War
  • The War That Only Happened on Odd-Numbered Days
Series B — Field File

Chokepoint Files

The waterways empires fight over, then and now.

The straits, canals, and sea-lanes that decide wars — and the powers fighting over them right now. The precedent is always older than the headline.

  • 01The Day the U.S. Navy Destroyed Iran's Fleet
  • 02They Were Trapped Here for 8 Years
  • 03A Tiny Boat Sank a Warship in 1967
  • 04The U.S. Made a Whole Country in Three Days
03

The Case Files

FILTER BY SERIES
FILE 39-ACLOSEST CALLS · 04
There's a Hydrogen Bomb Buried in North Carolina
EVENT: 24 JAN 1961 · FARO / GOLDSBORO, NC

A B-52 broke apart over North Carolina and dropped two four-megaton hydrogen bombs on American soil. One went through nearly its entire arming sequence — a single low-voltage switch was all that stopped the detonation. The other buried itself in a field, and its core was never recovered.

Aircraft
B-52G, Seymour Johnson AFB
Weapons
2 × Mark 39 Mod 2 (~3.8 MT each)
Yield scale
~250× Hiroshima, per bomb
Arming
3 of 4 safeties defeated; last switch held
Bomb 2
Secondary stage never recovered
Status
USAF holds an easement over the site

Sources & Record

  1. Parker F. Jones, "Goldsboro Revisited, or: How I Learned to Mistrust the H-Bomb" — Sandia National Laboratories memorandum (1969; declassified, released 2013). The assessment that a detonation was "credible."
  2. Eric Schlosser, Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion of Safety (Penguin, 2013) — Goldsboro chapter and FOIA documentation.
  3. U.S. Department of Defense, Narrative Summaries of Accidents Involving U.S. Nuclear Weapons (1950–1980) — official "broken arrow" record for the Faro, NC incident.
  4. U.S. Air Force land-easement records, Wayne County, NC — documenting the buried secondary stage and the restricted-use easement over the site.
FILE 731CLOSEST CALLS
The Biological Attack America Almost Didn't Survive
EVENT: 1945 · UNIT 731

Japan's Unit 731 weaponized the bubonic plague. In the final months of WWII it drew up a plan to carry the disease across the Pacific and release it over San Diego — a strike scheduled for weeks after Japan ultimately surrendered.

Program
Unit 731, Harbin, occupied Manchuria
Director
Gen. Shirō Ishii
Operation
Cherry Blossoms at Night (finalized Mar 1945)
Method
I-400 submarines → floatplanes, plague-flea bombs
Target
San Diego / Southern California
Outcome
Set for Sep 22, 1945; never launched — Japan surrendered Aug 15

Sources & Record

  1. U.S. Naval History and Heritage Command, H-Gram 057: "Operation Cherry Blossoms at Night" — official account of Ishii's plan and the I-400 submarine concept.
  2. Sheldon H. Harris, Factories of Death: Japanese Biological Warfare, 1932–45, and the American Cover-up (Routledge) — the standard scholarly history of Unit 731.
  3. Hal Gold, Unit 731 Testimony — firsthand accounts from former unit members, including the planned U.S. mission.
  4. Note: some historians date the operation's cancellation to spring 1945 rather than the surrender; the plan itself is documented and was never carried out.
FILE 69-ZCLOSEST CALLS
The Frozen Island That Nearly Started Nuclear War
EVENT: 2 MAR 1969 · USSURI RIVER

On a tiny, uninhabited island in a frozen river, a planned Chinese ambush of Soviet border guards spiraled into weeks of fighting — and Soviet officials are documented to have weighed a preemptive nuclear strike on China.

Place
Zhenbao / Damansky Island, Ussuri River
Dates
Mar 2, 1969 (ambush); Mar 15 (second battle)
Trigger
Chinese ambush of Soviet border troops
Casualties
~58 Soviet / ~29+ Chinese (disputed)
Escalation
USSR weighed a strike on China's nuclear sites
Aftermath
Pushed Beijing toward the U.S.; island ceded to China, 1991

Sources & Record

  1. Lyle J. Goldstein, "The Sino-Soviet Border Conflict: Deterrence, Escalation, and the Threat of Nuclear War in 1969" — CNA (Center for Naval Analyses).
  2. Hoover Institution, "The 1969 Sino-Soviet Border Conflicts as a Key Turning Point of the Cold War."
  3. Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, "Fact Sheet: The Sino-Soviet Border Dispute."
  4. Note: casualty figures are self-reported by each side and remain contested.
FILE 67-ECHOKEPOINT FILES · 03
A Tiny Boat Sank a Warship in 1967
EVENT: 21 OCT 1967 · OFF PORT SAID

The first warship ever sunk by a ship-launched guided missile. Small Egyptian missile boats killed an Israeli destroyer from miles away — the moment cheap standoff weapons could sink capital ships, and the precedent for today's drone-and-missile naval war.

Target
INS Eilat (ex-HMS Zealous), ~1,710-ton destroyer
Date / place
Oct 21, 1967 · ~13 nm off Port Said
Attacker
Egyptian Komar-class missile boats
Weapon
Soviet P-15 "Styx" missiles — 3 of 4 struck
Losses
47 of 199 crew killed; ~100 wounded
Significance
First warship sunk by a guided anti-ship missile

Sources & Record

  1. U.S. Naval Institute, Naval History — "The Cruise Missile Comes of Age" (2008) — on the Eilat as the turning point in anti-ship missile warfare.
  2. U.S. Naval Institute, Proceedings — "Aftermath of the Elath" (1969) — contemporaneous analysis of the sinking and its doctrinal shock.
  3. Steeljaw Scribe, "The Sinking of the INS Eilat: 50th Anniversary" — detailed engagement reconstruction (Komar boats, Styx launches, timeline).
04

How These Are Made

PRECEDENT is an independent, one-person archive. The visuals are AI-generated cinematic reconstructions — illustrative atmosphere, never claimed as documentary footage, and disclosed as synthetic on every upload.

The history is not. Every figure, date, and claim is drawn from primary documents and established scholarship, rounded only where popular history responsibly rounds, and attributed in-line where a claim is contested. The case files above exist so you can check the work yourself.

Sourced

Each episode carries its primary record — memos, accident summaries, scholarship — listed in this archive.

Disclosed

AI-generated visuals are labeled as synthetic content on every video. No footage is presented as real.

Adversarially checked

Scripts are pressure-tested for overclaim before publication. Accuracy is the gate, not the score.